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18/09/2015 03:10:13 PM

Currency wars: Who’s next to pull the trigger?

August's wave of currency interventions could just be the start of a "race to the bottom," analysts believe, with several major emerging markets looking set to devalue in the near-future.

Two economies have already followed China's shock devaluation of the yuan last week against the U.S. dollar by nearly 2 percent.

Vietnam, whose economy is closely tied to China, widened the dong's trading band by an additional 1 percent this week for the third time this year. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, abandoned its currency limits completely on Wednesday, knocking one-third off the value of the tenge.

"Sadly, there is a danger of a race to the bottom here… I think there will be competitive devaluation going on," Julian Chillingworth, chief investment officer at Rathbone Brothers, told CNBC on Friday.

The loosening of fixed currency regimes is an ongoing trend, with Russia, which is suffering its own economic strife, widening its foreign exchange trading band in August last year.

However, the rout in oil and the fear that China, which is a major importer of commodities, is in economic difficulties, appears to be spurring exporters of basic resources to devalue their currencies in order to remain competitive and retain revenue.

Notably, Kazakstan's main exports are crude petroleum, petroleum gas and refined copper, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). Its biggest importers are China and Russia.

Chillingworth named South Africa, Turkey and South Korea as contenders to devalue their currencies in the near future.

South Africa, which was overtaken last year by Nigeria as the continent's biggest economy, is a major exporter of precious metals, particularly gold, platinum and diamonds. As for Kazakstan, China remains South Africa's main export destination, along with Western Europe and the U.S., according to the OEC.

Turkey's biggest export is also gold, while China is the major importer of South Korean products.

"The Koreans again are head to head with the Chinese and the Japanese and they need to have a weaker won as well, so I can see this continuing for a little while," said Chillingworth.

The South Korea won has already declined by nearly 9 percent this year against the U.S. dollar, while the Turkish lira has tanked 25 percent and the rand is down 12 percent.

Depreciating further against the dollar could allow countries to gain more from comparatively buoyant U.S. demand, where the economy is seen growing by 2.5 percent or more this year.

"Everybody is relying on the U.S. at the moment," Simon Quijano-Evans, head of emerging market research at Commerzbank, told CNBC on Friday.

"If that is a decision that you make as a central bank, I don't believe in this whole currency war story. It's just a decision that you have to make at some stage."

(Theo CNBC)